Every Generation Moved Right. Why?
a generational breakdown of election result data
In this newsletter, I focus on the election through a professional lens to explore the generational dynamics at play. As in all of my work, my goal is to neutrally present data and theories.
The Votes
Gen Z moved 13 points to the right since 2020—the most movement of any age group. Gen X became the most conservative generation as Trump won that demographic by 10 points.
The first election I could vote in was 2008. After Obama’s historic win, there were endless think pieces written about the end of the Republican party. “Demography is destiny” was a common trope and young Americans were told that as the country became more diverse, it would automatically become more liberal. History is funny :) This chart is not specifically generational but since Gen Z is more racially and ethnically diverse than other generations, I still find it relevant:
Inflation and immigration were top issues while criminal justice reform and foreign policy were the least important. Each poll differs slightly, but not significantly.
Although economic factors took center stage in the minds of voters, it’s hard not to think that cultural issues were at play. Kevin Drum compiled information from various polls to show public views on culture issues—specifically net support for progressive views. Progressive views on abortion and gun control remain very popular with voters, whereas progressive views on immigration and the Israel/Hamas war are least popular with voters.
The Theories
Voters sent Washington a loud message when they handed Trump the electoral college, the popular vote, every swing state, and significant traction with traditional democratic voters. But what that message is remains up for interpretation.
Some pundits think the Dems went “too woke,” some believe it was sexism, some believe that Trump’s campaign had more consistent messaging, while others believe that Biden dropping out late didn’t give voters enough time to understand Harris’ policy positions. It was “The Testosterone Election” or “The Gen X Election.” The explanations are endless and all of them hold elements of truth.
One theory I find interesting, and generational, is the role of podcast personalities in this election. Scott Galloway wrote about this phenomenon on his blog No Mercy/ No Malice.
Galloway writes, “When Trump went on Fox News’ Gutfeld!, which averages about 3 million viewers, he reached 5 million people.” Compare that to his reach on Joe Rogan’s podcast where the YouTube video alone has 40 million views.
Interviews with Joe Rogan, Lex Fridman, and Theo Vonn gave Trump the ability to speak to many young voters, particularly young men, where they were.
Harris also did a great interview on Alex Cooper’s podcast, Call Her Daddy. Interestingly, there was more controversy surrounding this interview coming from Cooper’s loyal listeners with many conservative women feeling betrayed by the interview. Regardless, I still think the viral clips from the interview were well received by millions of young women.
Galloway boils it down nicely when he writes:
“The political power of podcasting is only beginning to be felt. The election was supposed to be a referendum on bodily autonomy: It wasn’t. Historically, the candidate who raises the most money wins: She didn’t. In each election the victor is likely to be whoever best weaponizes an emerging medium: He did. By far the most potent media weapon this time was podcasting.”
Other theories on Gen X’s conservatism and Gen Z’s rightward movement:
Gen X parents and Gen Z kids are highly influential over one another. It makes sense to me that we saw a rightward swing from Gen Z based on the overwhelming support we saw from Gen X.
I think Covid had a profound impact on Gen X. They were the ones sandwiched between aging parents and school-aged children during the pandemic. Gen Xers in blue cities showed a small, but not insignificant, move to the right and I wonder if some of that has to do with their reflections on school closures. I heard countless stories from parents in 2021 and 2022 about the deteriorating mental health of their teenagers and the frustration surrounding Covid protocols. It would make sense to me for that experience to move some members of Gen X rightward. (It’s worth mentioning that Gen X was majority Republican before this election. But 2024 was a more substantial majority).
Gen X always had a more libertarian tilt than other generations. The anti-establishment tone of Trump’s campaign, along with endorsements from libertarian-leaning entrepreneurs like Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and Marc Andreessen could have contributed to Trump's popularity with this group.
For Gen Z, MAGA is a blossoming youth counterculture movement. The majority of Gen Z voted for Harris and mainstream youth culture is squarely aligned with Democratic politicians. But to explain a 13-point swing requires understanding the cultural component of that shift. On college campuses, many students are immersed in increasingly homogenous institutions. I felt that it was only a matter of time before we saw some rebellious swing in the other direction. Patriotism started making a comeback on some campuses a few years ago but I would say the tipping point moment was the frat boys protecting the American flag at UNC to much fanfare. The fact that this moment was Republican-coded spoke volumes.
Youth MAGA culture was fun. Brat Summer was also fun, but Brat Summer was a celebrity concept that moved into mainstream and the momentum had mostly dissipated by the time students arrived on college campuses in late August. The MAGA youth-driven humor was subversive and grassroots. The Trump dance, the patriotic fashion, the Dance Party with Beyonce song, etc. I’m not intending to infantilize young voters. I have talked with many young people who rigorously researched the candidates and many had genuine concerns about war, job prospects, crime, and immigration. I just want to add that humor and enjoyment really matter, not just for young people.
I realize that this election was emotionally charged and we live in a divided time. I am hopeful that in the not so distant future we might be better able to see the humanity in all of us. I was particularly grateful this year to be out in the world. I traveled to 30 states and had the privilege of hearing stories from military families, first-generation immigrants, entrepreneurs, city councilors and mayors, students, teachers, restaurant and retail workers, activists, and countless others. It is clear to me that we have more in common than we think and our dreams for the future are not as far apart as it may seem.
In 4 years, we’ll do it all again and we’ll see how the first crop of Gen Alphas cast their ballots. 😵💫